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The Big Payback – UFC 256 Bets

big payback

Ryan Frederick and I are staff writers at WrestlingObserver.com and regular contributors to this site. For each UFC PPV this year, we are making betting picks and keeping track of the results.

Ryan’s Guide to UFC 255 was posted earlier this week.


With a starting bankroll of $1,000 each, the ground rules are as follows:

  • No more than 10% of bankroll wagered on any individual fight
  • Minimum of 3 picks per show and one must be an underdog

For betting novices, the odds reflect the amount of money won or lost for a $100 bet. If the odds are negative, you must bet that amount to win $100. If they are positive, you win that amount if you bet $100.

UFC 255 results

Ryan’s picks went 2-3 for a loss of $153.02.***

My picks went 3-3 for a profit of $311.

***Ryan had a pick that was not published, in error, which was Tim Means for $50 at +120.

Year-to-date results

Ryan’s picks are 32-15 for a profit of $285.01.

My picks are 17-28 for a loss of $134.23.

UFC 256 bets

Odds are from bovada.com as of 2PM Eastern on December 11th.

Ryan’s picks:

  • Tony Ferguson $88 at -170 to win $51.76
  • Mackenzie Dern $65 at -200 to win $32.50
  • Jacare Souza $45 at -120 to win $37.50
  • Cub Swanson $70 at +130 to win $91
  • Renato Moicano $40 at +120 to win $48
  • Billy Quarantillo $55 at -165 to win $33.33

Paul’s picks:

I closed the cap on the last show with some big underdogs coming through. There’s a chance if things go pretty much perfectly that I can close the big gap on this, the last show, but Ryan picking the same as me in the Dern/Vindiroba fight hurts those chances. We are going directly against each other in 3 other fights though.

  • Mackenzie Dern $85 at -200 to win $42.50
  • Junior Dos Santos $40 at +325 to win $130
  • Charles Oliveira $75 at +140 to win $105
  • Deiveson Figueredo $85 at -325 to win $26.15
  • Gavin Tucker $65 at +135 to win $87.75
  • Kevin Holland $85 at -110 to win $77.27

Follow myself or Ryan on fight night to keep track of the results. Good luck and enjoy the fights!

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