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The Big Payback – UFC 253 Bets

big payback

For each big UFC event in 2020, Ryan and I will make picks using odds at bestfightodds.com or bovada.com (which is what we’re using this week). With a starting bankroll of $1,000 each, our ground rules are that we will make at least 3 bets on each show. No more than 10% of our bankroll can be wagered on any fight and at least one pick must be an underdog.

For betting novices out there, fight odds are based on a $100 bet. So, if the odds are negative, you must bet that amount to win $100. If the odds are positive, a $100 bet will win you that much.

Ryan pulled away in the first half of the year with incredibly accurate picks with a mix of strong favorites and mild underdogs. My strategy of trying to find value in underdog picks started off decently but took a sharp turn for a few months and Ryan’s got a huge lead.

Here are the results after 6 events so far in 2020:

My picks are 12-19 with a loss of $158.47. For the last event, I went 3-2 with a profit of $27.94. Picking mostly big favorites with big bets turned things around for me slightly.

Ryan’s picks are 23-10 with a profit of $345.75. For the last event, he went 1-4 with a loss of $170. It’s just the 2nd losing night he’s had all year.

For Saturday’s UFC 253, here are our picks:


Jeff Hughes $25 at +235 to win $58.75
Diego Sanchez $25 at +475 to win $118.75
Ketlen Vieira $80 at -200 to win $40
Israel Adesanya $80 at -185 to win $43.24


Israel Adesanya $50 at -185 to win $27.03
Dominick Reyes $69 at -285 to win $24.21
Hakeem Dawodu $45 at +115 to win $51.75
Jake Matthews $134.57 at -750 to win $17.94
William Knight $45 at +135 to win $60.75
We are only picking against each other on one fight, that being Diego Sanchez vs Jake Matthews. A Diego win would make things much closer but, as the odds suggest, it’s not terribly likely to happen.

Bankroll totals will be updated before UFC 254 on October 25th.

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