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The Big Payback – UFC 252 Bets

big payback

Ryan Frederick and I are both staff writers at Wrestling Observer/F4W Online. Between the two of us, we handle all of the live UFC coverage on the site, with Ryan doing the majority and I also chip in with coverage of Bellator and some other noteworthy events that occur from time to time.

For each big UFC event in 2020, Ryan and I will make picks using odds at Best Fight Odds or Bovada (which is what we’re using this week).

With a starting bankroll of $1,000 each, our ground rules are that we will make at least 3 bets on each show. No more than 10% of our bankroll can be wagered on any fight and at least one pick must be an underdog.
For betting novices out there, fight odds are based on a $100 bet. So, if the odds are negative, you must bet that amount to win $100. If the odds are positive, a $100 bet will win you that much.

Ryan is really pulling away with incredibly accurate picking and my attempts at picking longshots in order to catch up haven’t really been working although my losses aren’t nearly as bad as my record would suggest the should be.

Here are the results after 5 events so far in 2020:

My picks are 9-17 with a loss of $166.41. For the last event, I went 1-4 with a loss of $84.44. I normally wouldn’t point this out but there were two very questionable decisions that would’ve not only given me a profit for the night but put me back over even for the year. Those being Zaleski Dos Santos and Max Holloway.

Ryan’s picks are 22-6 with a profit of $515.75. For the last event, he went 4-1 with a profit of $100.71.

For Saturday’s UFC 252, here are our picks:


Stipe Miocic $80 at -110 to win $72.73
Sean O’Malley $80 at -280 to win $28.57
Jair Rozenstruik $80 at -140 to win $57.14
Virna Jandriboba $80 at -285 to win $28.07
John Dodson $50 at +195 to win $96


Daniel Cormier $40 at -120 to win $33.33
Sean O’Malley $69 at -280 to win $24.64
Merab Dvalishivili $110 at -250 to win $44
Jim Miller $60 at +110 to win $66
TJ Brown $45 at -155 to win $29.03

Two of the fights have Ryan and I picking against each other so there could be some movement one way or the other depending on how things go. Odds are as posted at Bovada as of 2:30 PM eastern time on Friday afternoon.

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