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The Big Payback – UFC 251 Bets

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Ryan Frederick and I are both staff writers at Wrestling Observer/F4W, in addition to writing for Fight Game Media.

Between the two of us, we handle all of the live UFC coverage on the site, with Ryan doing the majority, and I also chip in with coverage of Bellator and some other noteworthy events that occur from time to time.

For each big UFC event in 2020, Ryan and I will make picks using odds at one of the online betting sites. This week, I used Bovada, while Ryan used 5 Dimes.

With a starting bankroll of $1,000 each, our ground rules are that we will make at least 3 bets on each show. No more than 10% of our bankroll can be wagered on any fight and at least one pick must be an underdog.

For betting novices out there, fight odds are based on a $100 bet. So, if the odds are negative, you must bet that amount to win $100. If the odds are positive, a $100 bet will win you that much.

In an attempt to dig my way out of a hole, I went for some long shots on the last show, while Ryan played it smart and the end result was an extension of his lead.

Here are the results after 4 events so far in 2020:
My picks are 8-13 with a loss of $101.97. For the last event, I went 1-3 with a loss of $25.22.
Ryan’s picks are 18-5 with a profit of $415.04. For the last event, he went 5-1 with a profit of $113.17.

Here are our UFC 251 bets:


Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos $30 at +115 to win $34.50
Jessica Andrade $30 at +175 to win $52.50
Petr Yan $80 at -225 to win $35.56
Max Holloway $30 at +175 to win $52.50
Jorge Masvidal $30 at +190 to win $57


Jiri Prochazka $60 at +125 to win $75
Amanda Ribas $50 at -750 to win $6.67
Leonardo Santos $40 at -160 to win $25
Petr Yan $40 at -210 to win $19.05
Jorge Masvidal $25 at +185 to win $46.25

(Some of the odds are different because we placed our bets at different times. A lot of movement on the line for the Dos Santos fight means late money likely came in on his opponent, Muslim Salikhov. Bankroll totals will be updated before the next event that we do picks for, which is undetermined at this moment but stay tuned.)

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