Handicapping The Fatal 5-Way Match At Extreme Rules

fatal 5-way

Who is going to win the Fatal 5-Way match at Extreme Rules?

WWE’s Extreme Rules PPV is headlined by a match that I don’t believe they’ve ever done before; a Fatal 5-Way. You’ve seen a Fatal 4-Way and a Six Pack Challenge. But I can’t remember them doing a Fatal 5-way match. I’m counting on Dave Dutra to correct me if I’m wrong.

Originally, the main event was scheduled to be Roman Reigns vs Braun Strowman in some sort of gimmick match, per Dave Meltzer. But when Strowman had surgery for his elbow, they had to find a new main event, and here we are.

The match should be wild. Each person in the match is a strong main event worker. The winner gets a shot at Brock Lesnar’s WWE Universal Championship at July’s awkwardly named PPV, “Great Balls Of Fire”.

(By the way, according to Genius, the song “Great Balls Of Fire” means one of two things:

1. Jerry Lee Lewis is referencing the stars since they are ‘Great Balls of Fire’. Traditional lovestruck person that didn’t notice the stars until they fell in love
2. Mr. Lewis is referencing his testicles and saying that they are great ‘balls’ of fire in which case he should probably go to an STD clinic if they feel as if they are on fire and they are oversize. (come to think of it the first one is probably right)
I decided to handicap the match using real Las Vegas odds. Okay, there aren’t real Las Vegas odds for what I’m about to do (at least that I can find), but let’s just pretend they’re real.

Whatever it means, it’s still weird. Thanks Vince.)

I’ll list each competitor in the match and their odds for winning. By the way, I’m creating my own odds here. I don’t follow any of the weird pro wrestling betting sites.

Roman Reigns

50-1 odds

WWE has an interesting dilemma with Reigns this summer. How do you keep him strong, while also not keeping him too strong? It’s similar to whenever Stone Cold Steve Austin wasn’t champion post 2001. He was the top guy, but he couldn’t overshadow the title. He was the number one draw and had to be kept strong, but couldn’t always be in the title picture.

Roman isn’t quite their top draw, but he has a WrestleMania 34 date with Brock Lesnar, so the goal is still for him to be their main guy down the line. But that’s exactly why he can’t win this match. He needs to peak late this year and early next year, not right now. He’ll still be the strongest babyface in this match, but he won’t win it because his match with Lesnar is going to be on a bigger stage next year.

Samoa Joe

35-1 oddsSamoa Joe

I think Samoa Joe and Brock Lesnar would be a fantastic match. During WrestleMania 31 weekend in the Bay Area, I was at Jim Ross’ live show and he brought out Samoa Joe, who had wrestled the night before for Ring Of Honor, as his special guest. Ross said that if he were booking WWE, he’d book Samoa Joe vs Brock Lesnar. Joe would eventually show up in NXT two months later.

The opportunity is there to make the match, but I don’t think it’s time yet. Joe’s only been on the main roster for five months and hasn’t had a signature and defining feud yet. I’d love to see he and Reigns feud sometime this year as Samoa Joe vs Samoa Joe.

By the way, I have a SumnerSlam match idea for Reigns, which I’ll pitch in a bit.

Bray Wyatt

25-1 odds

Bray Wyatt may be the most utilized talent in WWE at the same time as being the most overrated character in WWE. It’s the tale of two Brays. On one end, he looks like an athletic beast in the ring. He can tell a story not only through his physicality, but also through his mannerisms and patience. But on the other end, whenever given an opportunity, whether through his fault or not, he doesn’t capitalize.

The proverbial brass ring is often a tired argument, but I do think it has merit here. For everyone who says his booking is bad (which I’d agree with to some extent), I see a guy whose also had a lot of chances and not always delivered.

Today, he and Brock Lesnar is a glorified squash match. The only reason I give him better odds than Reigns and Joe is because he’ll always get chances and there could be a story told with Braun Stroman interfering in this match to help him win.

Finn Bálor

5-1 odds

We jumped from long odds to short odds in one fell swoop.

For those who haven’t seen Finn’s WWE 24 special on the WWE Network, you need to check it out. You’ll come out of watching it rooting for him more than ever. He’s such a likable person and they made him seem like a very big deal. I think there’s a halfway decent chance that he comes out the victor in the match, but I think that a one on one meeting with Brock Lesnar is still too soon. Like Joe, he hasn’t had those signature feuds yet to heat him up for someone like Brock.

If there’s a way to fudge the finish in the match and force a three-way at “Great Balls Of Fire”, I would love to see him in it.

Here’s a good time to pitch the Roman Reigns feud that I mentioned earlier.

In the Fatal 5-Way, what if Bálor was about to win the match, but Roman is the reason why he doesn’t. He hits the Coup de Grâce on Wyatt and is immediately speared by Reigns to take them both out of the match. Bálor is frustrated from not winning the match, but also from Reigns beating him on Raw a few weeks back. On TV the next day, he turns on Reigns, grabs his buddies Gallows and Anderson, and creates the Bálor Club. This leads to a SummerSlam match with Reigns and his two buddies, Seth Rollins and Dean Ambrose as the Shield reunites for one night only. I’m in.

Seth Rollins

2-1 odds

The way WWE books winners and losers, it seems that Seth Rollins is winning this match. He lost to Roman at Raw on Monday. Often, the loser from Raw wins the big match on the PPV.

But the other reason I think Seth gets the match is because there might still be real interest in seeing these guys wrestle again. Seth won Brock’s title at WrestleMania 31 after cashing in his Money In The Bank briefcase and then defended the title against Brock at Battleground. That match never really got going because it was more of a setup for the Undertaker vs Brock rekindling at Summer Slam.

Seth Rollins Cashes his Money in the bank WM31 by JNoLimits

To me, he’s your most logical winner.

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