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Preview – Shane Mosley Vs. Manny Pacquiao

Originally, I was really disappointed that Bob Arum chose Shane Mosley as the next guy to face Manny Pacquiao. Mosley is one of those guys who is on the tail end of his career and the choice came off as really safe. People wanted him to face Juan Manuel Marquez again, but that fight seemed a bit of a can’t win fight for Manny. There were other names out there like Andre Berto, which we now see would’ve probably been one-sided after his loss to Victor Ortiz. So all in all, I guess the Mosley choice wasn’t all that bad.

The fight should be action packed. Mosley likes guys who come forward and punch. But a little bit of the bloom is off the Mosley rose after his loss to Floyd Mayweather and the draw with Sergio Mora. But the style of this fight should make it very entertaining. The sole question should be, “Does an older Shane Mosley have a shot to upset Manny Pacquiao?” Well, Tim Starks from The Queensberry Rules, Jake Emen from Pro Boxing Fans, Duan from this very site, and myself will try and answer that question.

Here’s what we think about this fight:

Tim Starks – Pacquiao by decison

Mosley has a chance to win. He doesn’t have a probability. Even at age 39, Mosley has one-punch power that Pacquiao has arguably never encountered in his career. Mosley has speed that exceeds that of arguably anyone Pacquiao has ever faced. Occasionally, he’s bucked his age for a revival. And Mosley’s blueprint — a big right hand that is poisonous for southpaws like Pacquiao, counterpunching ability to make an aggressive fighter such as Pacquiao pay for his relentlessness — very well could end in victory. Physically and stylistically, Mosley presents trouble for Pacquiao. But physically and stylistically, Pacquiao presents trouble for everyone. He’s got a sizzling combination of speed and power, and his unconventional style routinely befuddles opponents. If Pacquiao can avoid getting knocked out early, the fight should be his. My view of things is that Pacquiao will fight with a passable amount of caution to start, maybe even get wobbled for a second, but won’t be in any real harm. And Mosley won’t find the Fountain of Youth, not against someone like Pacquiao who will never give him a moment to rest, so he can forget about a late knockout. It’s early knockout or bust, and I’m seeing bust. I’m less convinced about how busted up Mosley will get.

I doubt that Pacquiao will flat-out KO Mosley. He very well could force the referee or Mosley’s corner to stop the fight. But like Miguel Cotto and Antonio Margarito, I think Mosley has too much pride to allow it, and I think his corner’s not going to be interested in overriding his decision, sadly. It will be left to referee Kenny Bayless, who waited until the 12th round to save Cotto. I suspect it will get that late for Mosley, too. But I think he’ll survive, and Pacquiao will be left with an unoriginal victory against an opponent who wouldn’t have been as worthy as some others. Mosley, let’s face it, is here because he’s not affiliated with Top Rank and presents a patina of danger to Pacquiao without a high degree of risk. It will still be a big event, though, because Pacquiao’s in it, plus we’ll find out if this Showtime/CBS broadcast/marketing deal can be revolutionary or merely evolutionary. And Pacquiao will put on his usual pyrotechnic show. We’ll have that, anyway.

Jake Emen – Pacquiao by decision

A fight between a 29-year-old Mosley circa 2000, when he won his first welterweight title, and this version of Pacquiao would be phenomenal. This isn’t the fight that we’ll be seeing, however. Mosley won’t be able to stay out of harm’s way, and he won’t be able to catch the swifter Pacquiao as much as he would like to either. Shane has never been adept at bouncing back from early struggles in a fight to turn things around late, and that is a terrible sign of things to come against Pacquiao. Pacquiao won’t be able to take Shane out, but the accumulation of punishment will batter and bruise him for a full 12 rounds. Pacquiao UD 118-110

Duan Greeley – Pacquiao by TKO (7th-10th round)

I was the guy who pleaded for everyone not to write off Mosley against Margarito, I gave him a real shot when he fought Mayweather, but for the first time I just can’t see it happening for Shane. The Mora fight was a huge eye opener: Mosley looked his age. There’s no way to sugarcoat it. That’s just the way it was.

They have sold this match up on the premise that Pacquiao will stand right in front of him thus playing into the older fighters hands. I don’t believe that to be true. Pac certainly wont run from him in the way Mora did, but Manny is very good at moving in and out while getting his shots off. I think Shane will have nightmares trying to hit him with anything. I really hope it doesn’t happen, but I think we could see a Pacquiao stoppage in the later rounds.

This is Mosley at his best weight. He’s still a terrific puncher and a great finisher, so you can’t dismiss him completely. He has a chance, but it’s the type of chance you give a guy when you are clutching at reasons to tune in.

GG – Pacquiao by 11th round TKO

I think this will be a highly entertaining fight for about five rounds. But after five, Manny Pacquiao will have hit Shane Mosley so many times, that Mosley’s body will start to shut down, much like it did against Floyd Mayweather. And like in that fight with Floyd Mayweather, he won’t have a reason as to why his body shut down. Pacquiao showed that he could take big shots by a bigger man. Antonio Margarito did hit him and I do think that it did ware him down a bit. But waring down Manny Pacquiao only means that he’s fast, rather than his usual super speed. I think Mosley’s corner, or the referee will see that nothing good can come from taking more punishment and end the fight for him. If only this was the 2000 version of Shane Mosley (like Jake said). I think we would’ve had a war.

There you have it. We’ll have live play by play of the fight on Saturday night. Enjoy the fights.

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