UFC 113 Preview – Shogun Rua Vs. Lyoto Machida 2
Still basking in the afterglow of the fantastic inaugural WEC (or not WEC?) PPV, Zuffa has a pretty darn good chance to make it two good shows in a row. UFC 113 has all the makings.
You have a rematch of one of the more questionable big fight judges’ decisions in recent memory. You have a possible slugfest between two of the biggest trash talkers in the company. And you have Kimbo Slice’s first UFC PPV fight. All in all, I expect the show to be pretty entertaining.
The FGB crew along with Stevie J from Angry Marks are here with predictions.
Kimbo Slice vs. Matt Mitrione
Duan: Slice by 2nd round TKO
Alan: Slice by 1st round TKO
Stevie J: Mitrione by 2nd round TKO
Cactus Jim: Mitrione by 2nd round TKO
GG: Mitrione by 2nd round TKO
Let’s be perfectly honest about it, neither of these guys are ever going to mean anything in the heavyweight division. So I’m going with the one I like, Kimbo by knockout. This fight will probably take the shape of a brawl, and that should suit Kimbo just fine.
Well this should be something, shouldn’t it! I think both of these guys are horrible horrible fighters that have no place in the UFC, but that’s not to see this might not be highly entertaining. It needs to end early though because if these guys go past 7 or 8 minutes they will be TIRED AS HELL and things will get baaaad. Mitrione despite what he says, has zero power in his hands, but I also think he has a great chin. God I can’t believe I’m analyzing Matt Mitrione. Anyway, Kimbo might just pull off another whacky suplex and Mitrione won’t know how to improve position on his back, so the ref just stops it as Kimbo “rains” crappy short punches at him.
Stevie J says:
Mitrione has all the cards in his favor – size, build, and a hardcore athletic background as a former NFL player. He knows how to train, and though his cardio was underwhelming on Ultimate Fighter he’s undoubtedly had plenty of time to improve in all aspects of the fight game since then. Kimbo… well he’s Kimbo. Despite people saying he’d never make it in legitimate mixed martial arts he’s 4-1, and one could argue that being stopped by Seth Petruzelli as a last second replacement was a fluke. Then again that record doesn’t account for his unofficial loss to Roy ‘Big Country’ Nelson on TUF, and the fact EliteXC handfed Kimbo opponents he could beat to keep his star bright. He didn’t exactly tear the house down fighting Houston Alexander, but he did get the win (and the ratings) so UFC would like to keep him around – so here’s the $64,000 question: can Matt Mitrione stop him the way Roy Nelson did? Yes. Matt will take him to the ground, put all his weight on him, and Kimbo won’t be able to get away. Mitrione by TKO in R2, but this won’t be the end for Kimbo Slice in UFC.
Cactus Jim says:
This one is a tough call. Both guys are relatively inexperienced. Mitrione has good power and Kimbo has a suspect chin. Kimbo could take it to the ground and try to negate Matt’s power, but in doing so negates his own power. I think they stand and Kimbo gets it before he has a chance to give it.
As a fan, I dig Kimbo Slice. More than likely, he’ll never be a solid hand, but I do enjoy watching him try. I just don’t think he’s athletic enough to pick up the skills needed to grow. But I think Mitrione does. He looks a little goofy in there and you can’t really tell that he was a good enough athlete to be a pro football player. His main issue seems to be conditioning more than anything else. You also wonder if he has the heart to be good, but that could simply be the creative editing from The Ultimate Fighter. I think it will be a slobber knocker, but Mitrione will be the less tired of the two and win because of Kimbo’s exhaustion.
Paul Daley vs. Josh Koscheck
Duan: Daley by 1st round TKO
Alan: Koscheck by 1st round TKO
Stevie J: Koscheck by 3rd round submission
Cactus Jim: Koscheck by decision
GG: Koscheck by decision
I’m going against my better judgment here and picking Daley. His flaws are well known, and generally speaking a guy like Koscheck has the perfect style to exploit them. However, Josh has a leaky defense and a suspect chin. That, combined with an overconfidence in his striking, spells danger in this fight. I just feel that at some stage in this fight Semtex has to get through with one, and when he does it wont be pretty.
Josh says he might just be arrogant enough to try to stand. I think that was a bold faced lie. He knows what he’s going to do – Takedown, takedown, takedown, and every time he’s on top he’s going to elbow Daley into oblivion. I think Daley’s an extremely talented, exciting fighter, but I have no interest in seeing GSP fight yet another elite striker with zero takedown defense. So I very much hope Koscheck wins, and I have very little doubt that he will.
Stevie J says:
There’s a lot on the line here as the winner has a future title shot against Georges St-Pierre. To be honest, I feel like that’s a lamb being led to the slaughter, but I said the same thing when Frankie Edgar was sent to face BJ Penn and I was proved wrong (though I still think the scoring in that fight was ludicrous). Koscheck has looked good against everybody except guys with “Thiago” in their name. Semtex’ record is also pretty good – he’s reeled off four straight wins – but he looked bad against Jake Shields and lost a unanimous decision to Nick ‘The Goat’ Thompson so he too can be beat. It is to Koscheck’s advantage that the majority of Semtex’ losses are by submission, as Koscheck has some of the best wrestling technique ever in UFC (only GSP made him look bad) and his RNC of Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson at UFC 106 proves submission a legit tool in his shed. Koscheck is vulnerable to a KO though and Daley is a wrecking machine in that category. Bottom line? This one is a coin flip – great job by Joe Silva to match them against each other. My coin says “heads” so I go with Josh Koscheck getting a submission in R3.
Cactus Jim says:
Despite Koscheck saying he wants to stand a trade with Daley I doubt he’ll actually do it. If he does there’s a good chance he’ll think getting KO’ed by Paulo Thiago was a pillow fight with a Playboy bunny. Just as I expect Shogun to take it to the ground, I expect Josh to do the same. Daley has proven to be susceptible to submissions and hasn’t displayed much talent on the ground. With Koscheck’s wrestling pedigree I don’t see Daley having much chance at stopping the takedown and a slow control and dominate win by Josh.
Much like Duan, I want to go against my brain and say that Daley is going to catch Koscheck at some point in this fight. Unlike Duan, I don’t have the courage to pick him. My head says that Koscheck is in better shape, has great wrestling, and is savvy enough to have learned how to win a fight like this.
Shogun Rua vs. Lyoto Machida
Duan: Machida by 3rd round TKO
Alan: Machida by 2nd round submission
Stevie J: Machida by decision
Cactus Jim: Shogun by decision
GG: Machida by 4th round TKO
I think Shogun’s strategy surprised Machida in their first fight, but that was his best possible fight. He’s shown his cards now, and I don’t think that he can do anything different. Machida is the one with the ability to change the dynamic of this fight. He will be better prepared to cope with Rua’s offense, and he will pick him apart with counters.
I’m way more interested in the rematch than the original. Shogun exposed holes in Machida’s game and was the first guy to stop Lyoto fighting Lyoto’s fight. However I think Machida underestimated Rua last time, and it’s fair to say that’s not going to happen again. There was no Plan B for him last time because he probably didn’t think he’d need one. This time I think he’ll have Plan B, C, D and E. And I don’t know if Shogun will keep coming up with ways to stifle them. Machida by submission after a knock down in 3 minutes of Round 2.
Stevie J says:
Machida has an unorthodox style which (other than Shogun apparently) gives everyone fits, while Shogun is a former hot prospect who (other than Machida apparently) has never quite lived up to his potential. Last time I picked Machida to win, and by hook or crook I was right. This time I don’t think there will be any question – Machida is not going to let this turn into another kickboxing match. While my friend Peter thinks Rua is being stopped, I think the more likely result is a five round decision which some people will hate – probably a little boring in fact – but Machida will only pounce when he’s not vulnerable and do just enough to retain by unanimous decision.
Cactus Jim says:
In this fight I think Shogun changes his game up a bit from the first fight and goes for takedowns and control on the ground. Early he’ll test the success of the leg kicks and try to limit Machida’s mobility and then work toward the takedowns. Machida will most likely land a few more shots this time, but I don’t see him putting Shogun out. Shogun grinds this one out in a decision.
Maybe the best thing that came out of their first fight was the fact that we finally saw the Shogun that we expected to see since he joined the UFC. He had a brilliant game plan to kick Machida’s legs and take them out from under him. Without his legs, Machida looked like a normal fighter. But what I wonder is if Shogun can change game plans if necessary. You know Machida isn’t going to allow it to happen again. I think Shogun will fight great again, but I just think that Machida is more versatile and can win in more ways.
The only thing that we’re unanimous on is that we do hope to see a decision in the main event. I don’t think we truly want this one going to the judges again.
5 thoughts on “UFC 113 Preview – Shogun Rua Vs. Lyoto Machida 2”
2 out of 3 ain’t bad, especially when everybody but Cactus Jim picked Machida, and even Jim had Shogun going the distance. I think it’s safe to say that in one way or another we all got the main event wrong, but I give Jim credit where it’s due for picking Rua.
Machida looked so uncomfortable. Hat off to Shogun. He’s back.
So glad Shogun won—that opens up a lot of new interesting matchups at 205.
The first being against the winner of Evans/Jackson. I am pulling for Jackson just because that would be a Pride rematch that would be easy to hype.
And now Silva can move up to 205.