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UFC 111 Preview – Georges St. Pierre Vs. Dan Hardy

UFC 111 is going to be one of the biggest shows of the year. With Georges St. Pierre in the main event and Frank Mir and Shane Carwin slugging it out on the semi-main event, it’s the best batch of fights of the year for UFC so far. It also comes one day before WrestleMania XXVI, which will outdo it worldwide, but we’ll see if the UFC takes away some North American fans.

We’re going to break down the top two fights. Originally, we were going to also break down Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves, but Alves taken out of the fight earlier today and replaced by Ben Saunders. Because Saunders was added after most of us had already added our predictions, we’re skipping the fight.

The FGB crew as well as Stevie J from AngryMarks have added our predictions.

Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin

Duan: Carwin by 1st round TKO
Alan: Carwin by 1st round TKO
Stevie J: Mir by 3rd round submission
Cactus Jim: Carwin by 1st round TKO
GG: Carwin by 2nd round TKO

Duan says:

Anyone who believes Frank Mir is still a top heavyweight contender is living in a dream world. This nonsense ends at UFC 111.

Alan says:

Carwin smashes Mir into the ground and me and Duan will have ourselves dinner bought and paid for by Frank’s bitter tears. I don’t even think he’ll need his wrestling (other than to avoid being taken down himself), he’ll stay standing, Mir will start striking with his usual over-inflated sense of skill and Shane will knock his head off with one of them big ‘ol ham-hawks in the 1st Rd.

Stevie J says:

The UFC’s heavyweight division, once considered their weakest link a few years ago, now seems to have an intriguing fight on almost every card. This one is made even more intriguing by the fact an interim title is on the line and the winner is likely to face Brock Lesnar to unify the titles (health permitting). Mir has been in that position before and it didn’t go so well for him, but he’s now a bigger and stronger fighter than ever before and a jitz wizard on the ground, and has plenty of title fight experience. That experience lends to an edge against Shane Carwin, a young phenom who may be the hardest hitting fighter in the heavyweight division OTHER than Lesnar. Carwin has crushed everyone he’s faced with ease, but he’s never faced the likes of Mir under this much pressure and scrutiny. I don’t expect Carwin to fold under that pressure – he’s a game fighter and has more than just a puncher’s chance, but the longer this fight goes the more it favors Mir – in fact I’ll say if it goes past round one it’s a foregone conclusion Mir wins and I expect it to get to the third, where Mir taps him out on the ground with a kimura.

Cactus Jim says:

Carwin’s chin may have been questioned a bit by Gonzaga, but I think his power to recover was highlighted in the process. Mir will be unable to deal with Carwin’s power and will succumb to a shot to the dome.

GG says:

In no way will this be an easy fight for Carwin, but I think Brock Lesnar has already laid out the blueprint for him. Take Mir down, put your weight on him, hold him down, and punch him in the face. Do it time and time again. He’s not going to stop them. And if you keep it on the feet, there’s always a chance that you can get caught. If Carwin follows the Brock blueprint, I think he wins.

Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy

Duan: GSP by 3rd round TKO
Alan: GSP by 2nd round submission
Stevie J: GSP by 2nd round TKO
Cactus Jim: GSP by 2nd round TKO
GG: GSP by 3rd round TKO

Duan says:

I would love to see Hardy pull off the upset, but the kid is just completely outmatched. Short of landing with that one big haymaker shot, he hasn’t got a prayer. Hardy is mentally tough and he will definitely come to fight, but he is in over his head.

Alan says:

GSP is gonna surprise Hardy by being his equal on the feet, and will mix up taking him down and even knocking him down. This will be a masscare. Hardy will survive the first 5, and then get put away soon there-after. I see this being alot like Penn/Stevenson from Newcastle. Only with more backflips and less bloody fist licking.

Stevie J says:

This fight is LOL in many ways as they have run out of top guys to challenge St-Pierre and are now forced to make #1 contender fights from the second tier of welterweights in UFC. I mean no disrespect to Dan Hardy though – he’s a very competent fighter – he’s just way out of his league here. GSP will go down as one of the greatest fighters of all time, Hardy will just go down – this is another name to add to his resume. Hardy literally only has Matt Serra’s chance of winning – one perfectly time shot with everything he’s got on it – and I don’t see that happening to St-Pierre twice in a lifetime no matter what Serra or Hardy might think.

Cactus Jim:

Hardy is a guy with a couple big KO’s over name fighters, but neither of those guys are named GSP. The one who has fought GSP got his ass handed to him. My prediction is GSP comes out a little cautious, has some success, opens up toward the end of the first and finished him in the second. Fitch gets the next shot and the result is no different than their first meeting.

GG says:

Jon Fitch is a better wrestler than Hardy and GSP beat him up. Thiago Alves has heavier hands than Hardy and GSP beat him up. BJ Penn is a better fighter than Dan Hardy and GSP beat him up. While I think Hardy is going to show his worth on this night, he’s still going to be outclassed. I think GSP beats him up like GSP beats everyone up. He just wears people down. Hardy doesn’t answer the fourth round.

Because I’m going to be at WrestleMania XXVI in Arizona and won’t have a chance to see this live, we won’t have our normal live play by play. I’ll do the play by play for the show, but more than likely on Monday. We should have the results up late Saturday night though.

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16 thoughts on “UFC 111 Preview – Georges St. Pierre Vs. Dan Hardy

  1. I love Carwin but I don’t feel like he’s been tested. I’m going to look like a genius if Mir wins, because judging by this preview, I’m going out on a limb to pick him. *heh*

  2. GSP by fifth round submission.

    Unfortunately Hardy becomes the ugly result of the UFC overhyping a guy who really doesn’t belong in the octagon with St. Pierre. There is no where Hardy is safe, and after absorbing the abuse for 20+ minutes, his guard will go soft and GSP will tap him out.

    Frank Mir by first round submission.

    I would like to say that Mir will avoid mixing it up, in an effort to tire Carwin for a round or two and really test his cardio. But that won’t happen. They will go toe to toe, I actually think Mir will get the better of Carwin the same way Gonzaga did, and finish it with a choke.

  3. Oh, and I also hope “Killer B” Ben Saunders finds a way to beat Jon Fitch. I like watching that guy fight.

  4. Do we even know if Mir has a chin? From my memories, he gets hit and goes down. Some of that is to goad his guy to the ground, but I don’t think he has a good chin does he?

  5. Who really knows with Frank Mir.

    I’ve seen most of his fights and can’t remember him being cleaned out with a punch. Vera clinched him and kneed him to pieces. A lot of people chalk that up to him still getting into fighting shape after his accident though. I’m not as convinced.

    Mir is just really hot and cold. But I am convinced that Mir is all consumed with getting his third fight against Lesnar and is taking the proper steps towards keeping his place at the top of the UFC.

  6. For business sake, I hope Mir wins. There were also reports (Josh Gross) that Carwin looked soft, but then Big Dave Meltzer said that the way each guy looked shouldn’t change anyone’s original prediction.

  7. Oh well. I still love Frank no matter what. He’s always going to be a factor and with a couple of wins he could be right back in line to have a rubber match with Lesnar. It’s not over yet and we get his awesome commentary on WEC no matter what.

  8. Hardy wasn’t kidding when he said after training with the Shaolin monks he knew he had reached a point where he could never quit in a fight again. 95 out of 100 people would have tapped in the same situation – perhaps even 99.

  9. Hardy has only ever succumbed to chokes. Like you said, if given the choice he will never tap. If you are going to finish him with a submission, it has to put him to sleep.

  10. It cracks me up that GSP dominates Hardy and the story is that Hardy didn’t tap. Amazing.

    And I’ve been reading about how GSP’s one flaw is that he doesn’t finish guys. MMA fans have such short memories because I remembered him making BJ Penn quit just over a year ago. Physically succumb to pain and not want to fight anymore. How much more finished can you get?

    Hardy’s a gamer. We knew that. But that shouldn’t be the story of this fight.

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