UFC 107 Preview – B.J. Penn Vs. Diego Sanchez

While there’s not a ton of star power and I doubt this show will do a great buy rate, there are two possibly excellent fights. And when you get Frank Mir heeling on anyone and everyone, that’s near can’t miss as well.

The FGB crew and Stevie J from AngryMarks break down the top three fights from UFC 107.

Kenny Florian Vs. Clay Guida

Big D: Florian by 3rd round submission
Duan: Florian by 3rd round submission
Alan: Guida (didn’t specify how)
Stevie J: Guida by 3rd round TKO
Jim: Guida by decision
GG: Florian by 3rd round TKO

Big D says:

This is the fight I am most looking forward to. Here we have two exciting, fast-paced cardio machines. I think this fight will basically be an explosive first round where they battle it out, but I think Clay will pull a Clay and get caught with a late submission by Florian. I think that after this card, we will see Florian vs. Sanchez 2 at 155 – which should be a fun one.

Duan says:

Florian is good enough to knock off most of the top contenders at 155. The problem is that i’m not sure anyone really wants to see him get another shot at Penn.

Alan says:

God I hope Clay wins. And I think he will, if he’s smart. His only advantage over Kenny is the wrestling so he needs to get on top and fight a Clay Guida fight (and piss off Duan in the process.)

Stevie J says:

Few fighters are harder for me to be objective about than Clay Guida. He was the opening bout of the first UFC show I ever attended live, he was the co-main of the only UFC card I’ve sat ringside for, and both times everything about him was a win including the decision of the judges. The only thing wilder than his lion’s mane hair is the way he fights – non-stop aggression from start to finish. Florian has looked great though in seven straight fights save for his last one – BJ Penn tends to do that to people (Diego take note). The problem with Guida’s aggression is that he tends to put himself into dangerous situations, and Florian is the kind of BJJ black belt who can exploit that and humble him. DESPITE THIS I’m still picking Guida by TKO in R3.

Jim says:

I think Guida outmuscles Kenny and pounds him on the bottom. Not the Sean Sherk style beat down he took a few years ago, but a closely matched high energy bout. Much bouncing up and down and shaking of the lovely locks will follow.

GG says:

I’m going to call the exact, technical finish here. I think that Florian busts Guida open with elbows from the bottom in the second round and eventually it’s stopped in the the third round because of a severe cut and gushing blood.

Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo

Big D: Mir by 2nd round submission
Duan: Kongo by 1st round TKO
Alan: Kongo by 1st round TKO
Stevie J: Mir by 2nd round submission
Jim: Mir by 2nd round submission
GG: Mir by 2nd round submission

Big D says:

I think this will be an odd fight, but a good one. Kongo CAN KO Mir, but I don’t see it happening. I see him getting caught and submitted.

Duan says:

Kongo destroys Mir in the stand up, and stops him within the very first round.

Alan says:

I hate both guys, but Mir is actually trying to make me hate him and it’s really worked because I want Kongo to destroy him so bad. And I think he will. Similar to the main event, a barrage of strikes, Mir will go down, Kongo will G&P, ref will stop.

Stevie J says:

When Cheick Kongo wins of late, he wins by TKO. That’s a plus. When Cheick Kongo loses of late, he loses by decision in a boring fight. That’s a minus. The only guy to make Mir look bad in his last four fights is Brock Lesnar. That’s a plus. Unfortunately Lesnar did it to him twice, even in a fight that he lost. That’s a minus. Kongo has heavy hands, Mir has some of the best ground game of any UFC heavyweight in history, but all things being even I see Mir shooting on Kongo and him not being able to stop the takedowns, which eventually lead to Mir taking side control and setting up a successful arm bar.

Jim says:

Kongo can punch, but can’t stop a takedown to save his ass. Mir will take a few getting in, but once he puts the trip on the big man it’s all over except the tapping. Much Lesnar smack talk will follow.

GG says:

The only reason this fight has any buzz going in is because Mir has been able to talk it up. And I think it’s a bad match-up for Kong. I do think Kongo can blast Mir if the fight stays upright, but I think by hook or by crook Mir gets him down and subs him on the ground.

Diego Sanchez vs. B.J. Penn

Big D: Penn by 2nd round submission
Duan: Penn by 2nd round TKO
Alan: Sanchez by 1st round TKO
Stevie J: Penn by any damn way he wants to win
Jim: Penn by 2nd round submission
GG: Penn by 2nd round submission

Big D says:

I am very excited for this main event. I think both guys are very well rounded, but I think Diego is a bit in over his head. BJ is a beast and I predict Sanchez is going to go into this fight with a big head and it’ll be exploded. I predict B.J. out-jiu-jitsus him and does his infamous finisher; the rear naked choke, and sends Diego down the card. Diego is good, but Penn is in a league of his own.

Duan says:

This is the best possible match up UFC could make at Lightweight, and I expect it to be a terrific fight. I feel that B.J. is just that little bit better in every aspect of the game (with the obvious exception of cardio), and will prove to be too much for Diego. Penn scores a TKO in the second round of an all action main event.

Alan says:

Head says Penn, heart says Weirdass Diego. Going with heart. Going with Weirdass.

I think it ends in the first round. I don’t know if it’s impossible to KO B.J. with that chin of his, but it is possible to pound him relentlessly enough for the ref to jump in. That’s what I see happening. A Diego blitz midway through R1, stuns B.J., Diego gets on top of him and wails away until he’s pulled off.

Stevie J says:

Outside of his natural weight class, B.J. Penn can be any fighter on any day – always having a chance to win but not always having the stamina to do it. At 155 though B.J. dominates his weight class the way few men ever have. People underestimate Penn every time because they buy the hype he doesn’t train and he’s not in shape. Maybe Penn will never look like a Roman statue, but have you ever taken a close look at his biceps during a fight? This man works out hard, he’s strong as hell, he’s got striking accuracy like no other and you just DON’T want to go to the ground with him – that’s a wrap. Sanchez has reinvented himself and become a terror at 155, but I don’t care how much he yells and screams on his way to the Octagon – he’ll be whimpering in pain on his way out.

Jim says:

Diego will come out strong with the punches, but have a hard time with the takedown. I think Penn weathers the round, get good position on the ground in round 2 and submits an over aggressive Weirdass Sanchez. Much exaltation will follow.

GG says:

I think Diego’s rapid fire all action style is going to be his downfall. B.J. is just too good a stand-up fighter and he will pick off one of Diego’s shots and just put him on the ground. And once he’s there, he’s going to work the rear naked choke. Diego might look good in the first round, but by then B.J. will have him figured out.

There you go. We’ll be back tomorrow night with live UFC 107 play by play.

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