Strikeforce/M1 Global – Fedor Vs. Brett Rogers Preview

It’s preview time again at FGB.

MMA is back on broadcast television. CBS is giving Strikeforce a shot to provide MMA on their network, and Strikeforce chose Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers to be their hook to make the biggest splash possible. For one weekend, all of MMA’s eyes will be on Strikeforce and I know that all of us here hope that they pull off a great show because major acceptance of MMA in the eyes of the public will only be good for the sport as a whole.

The FGB crew, along with Stevie J from AngryMarks, break down the top three fights on the show.

Gegard Mousasi vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

Big D: Mousasi by 1st round TKO
Duan: Mousasi by 1st round submission
GG: Mousasi by 1st round TKO
Stevie J: Mousasi by 3rd round TKO
Cactus Jim: Mousasi by 1st round TKO

Big D says:

Oooo…. Sokoudjou is gonna get obliterated, annihilated, ripped apart, torn to bits, and all of that stuff. Mousassi kills this man.

Duan says:

Mousasi is one of my favourite fighters to watch. He has the advantage in pretty much every aspect of the game. I expect him to have a quick nights work here; finishing Sokoudjou with a choke.

GG says:

After watching Mousasi demolish Babalu live a few months ago, I came back extremely impressed with his calmness, patience, and explosiveness. Those three descriptions don’t seem to usually go together, but that’s what I saw out of him. He took his time, never flinched once, and just exploded. Though Sokoudjou is strong, he also has a tendency to tire easily. I think Mousasi overwhelms him.

Stevie J says:

As noted when I talked to GG on AMP, there’s really no reason to think Mousasi doesn’t breeze through this fight. I like Sokoudjou, but he’s not on Mousasi’s level, and the guys he’s beaten coming into this fight are not the same caliber of fighters Mousasi has fought – including a positive dismantling of a former #1 light heavyweight contender in UFC in Babalu. I’d love to see some African magic, I expect Mauro Ranallo to make reference to it several times, but once the smoke clears the fog will clear in his head and Sokoudjou will say “What train just hit me?” TKO for the Dreamcatcher from DREAM.

Cactus Jim says:

The Soko hype machine derailed about 18 months ago. My prediction is that Mousasi pounds him out early and we see Dan Henderson standing in the corner with a WTF just happened look on his face.

Jake Shields vs. Jason Miller

Big D: Shields by decision
Duan: Shields by decision
GG: Shields by 3rd round submission
Stevie J: Shields by 2nd round submission
Cactus Jim: Shields by decision

Big D says:

Potential to be the most entertaining fight of the night. Mayhem always brings it and this is his chance to get a big spot. That said though, Shields is just too good for him and while Mayhem is fine, he’s far from elite level.

Duan says:

I will be the first to admit that I underrated Shields. He proved himself with the performance against Lawler though. I expect him to control position for most of this fight, but Miller is a tricky guy to finish.

GG says:

I think strength is going to be the difference here. Not many people thought that Shields could weather the Robbie Lawler storm, but I think he’s stronger than most people give him credit for. Miller is a wily veteran and he’s going to make this thing competitive based on spirit alone. I may be overestimating Shields here, but I think he’s top notch and will win an impressive and exciting fight.

Stevie J says:

Arguably the most interesting fight on the whole card. Shields has a submission game that ranks right up there with BJ Penn or Ricardo Almeida, while Miller has an unorthodox and versatile arsenal of tools – he wins by submission, knockout or decision and has no problem taking it any way he goes. The only knock against Miller is that he’s lost some of the big fights he should have won and only seems to claim titles in smaller organizations, so some people think he’ll always be one step below the big leagues. Unfortunately this may again be the case with the Strikeforce title on the line, because Shields has underrated power in his hands and the ability to pick where a fight goes at his discretion. While Miller won’t make a silly mistake like offering Shields his head for a guillotine choke, if it came down to a submission war Shields wins 8 out of 10 times, and that’s where I see this fight going.

Cactus Jim says:

Mayhem usually wins or goes to a decision. In this case I think Shields wins, but Mayhem weathers the storm and makes Shields look bad in the process.

Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers

Big D: Emelianenko by 1st round submission
Duan: Emelianenko by 1st round TKO
GG: Emelianenko by 1st round TKO
Stevie J: Emelianenko by 1st round TKO
Cactus Jim: Emelianenko by 1st round submission

Big D says:

There is no question in my mind that Rodgers has power, but there are guys ten times as strong and accurate who Fedor has picked apart in their prime. I predict a bad night for Rodgers.

Duan says:

Rogers is a great guy and he deserves his shot, but Fedor will just be too much for him at this stage. I expect Brett to come out swinging, and he may cause the great man some early discomfort, but once Fedor finds his range it will be over.

GG says:

I just hope that Brett Rogers continues to grow after a fighter, no matter the decision here. That being said, I think Fedor is just too good to lose to someone as one-dimensional as Rogers. Everyone has a puncher’s chance, but Fedor can not only take a punch, but he is too smart to get involved in a stand-up war. And we’re not even sure Rogers himself can take a punch yet.

Stevie J says:

Having witnessed the devastating knockout power of Rogers firsthand at a Strikeforce show, there’s no way I don’t give him a puncher’s chance. How high is that chance though? Against a lesser foe maybe 80/20, against a decent one 50/50, but against Fedor it’s about 1 in 100 – not IMPOSSIBLE, just really really really unlikely. Rogers has dominated so easily in his career to date that he’s untested, and even guys who should have tested him like Arlovski got steamrolled. Fedor will not be rolled – most likely he’ll do the rolling. If it gets out of the first round I’ll be shocked, but to Rogers credit I don’t expect him to crumble the way Sylvia did when he fought Fedor. I think Rogers is younger, stronger, faster and better than the Maine-iac, but Fedor pwns guys like that every year and should continue to do so here.

Cactus Jim says:

Rogers won’t be able to avoid the takedown and once he’s on his back he’s fucked.

There you have it. Though we’re tape delayed here on the West Coast, we’ll have the play by play going tomorrow night.

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