UFC 104 – Lyoto Machida Vs. Shogun Rua Preview
It’s preview time again at FGB.
UFC 104 is a challenged show in that there’s not a whole lot of buzz for the show. I think everyone is excited to see Machida fight, but other than that, it’s a show that’s neither here nor there. In fact, with the exception of the top two fights, the main card is littered with fights that you wouldn’t be surprised to see on a Fight Night or European show. Part of the reason that the UFC has become so successful is because so many of their shows are “can’t miss”. We’ll see if seeing Machida defend his title is “can’t miss” enough when it comes to the buy rate numbers.
The FGB crew, along with Esteban J (Stevie J) from AngryMarks and JP, break down the top two fights on the show.
Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell
Big D: Velasquez by decision
Duan: Velasquez by decision
Alan: Velasquez by decision
GG: Velasquez by decision
Stevie J: Velasquez by 1st round TKO
JP: Velasquez by decision
Big D says:
A tough challenge for both guys. I think Velasquez works the takedown and has to be SUPER CAREFUL that he does not get caught with a bomb. That last fight with Kongo sorta made me weary of his defense and Rothwell has the power to knock him out.
Duan says:
I think Velasquez is still very much a work in progress, and far from the complete fighter he was being hyped up as. His wrestling base should still be enough to keep Rothwell on his back, and grind out a decision.
Alan says:
Cain seems to have his heart set on ground and pound in this one (well more so than usual) and I think Ben’s in a tough situation because of that.
GG says:
Velasquez needs to stay away from Rothwell’s power early on, but he’s too good of an athlete to be dominated. I think Rothwell tires a bit and Velasquez starts to do damage. I can see a third round stoppage, but I’ll go with a decision. As it is, I think Rothwell can look good enough to where he’ll be a great addition to the heavyweights in the UFC.
Stevie J says:
I like Big Ben (he even e-mailed me a correction on a story about Tim Sylvia once) but I think he’s overmatched here. I want him to win but I see Velasquez taking him down, manhandling him, and getting a first round TKO. Anything else would (pleasantly) surprise me.
JP says:
This match should be the biggest test of Cain’s young career. Rothwell is easily the largest opponent he has faced to date and most well-rounded. This will be a chance to see how Cain compares to the bigger heavyweights. Rothwell hasn’t fought in nearly a year and has promised to show off a brand new physique for this fight. Velasquez lacks the punching power to drop Rothwell but has the wrestling skill to ground out a decision.
Shogun Rua vs. Lyoto Machida
Big D: Machida by 1st round TKO
Duan: Machida by 2nd round TKO
Alan: Machida by 1st round TKO
GG: Machida by 2nd round TKO
Stevie J: Machida by 1st round TKO
JP: Machida by 3rd round submission
Big D says:
Shogun dies. Machida thrives.
Duan says:
I’m not convinced Shogun is “back”. A win over a completely shot Chuck Liddell has very little significance. Regardless, Rua’s come forward aggressive style will play right into Machida’s hands. I predict an easy night’s work for Lyoto.
Alan says:
Lyota by TKO round 1, no doubt in my mind. The biggest question mark is if he’ll completely avoid getting hit again.
GG says:
The interesting thing about this fight to me is that it’s Machida’s first title defense. He conquered the mountain climb by winning the title. But it’s something else to defend the title. Will he come out and fight his game, or will he want to impress the fans so that he can become a bigger star? I say that he stays patient, picks apart Shogun, and stops him in the second round.
Stevie J says:
3-4 years ago in PRIDE this might have been a competitive fight, but then again, 3-4 years ago in PRIDE Shogun was a world beater and nobody had heard of Machida Karate. Times change, styles evolve, and Machida is now the new definition of a light heavyweight. Shogun looks like time passed him by. He got killed by Forrest, just barely beat Mark Coleman, and now we’re supposed to believe he’s a #1 contender cause he killed Liddell? *cough* BULLSHIT *cough* Everybody kills Liddell these days. Rua is not in Machida’s league and I don’t expect this to last longer than it took you to read my preview – a minute tops.
JP says:
Shogun will push the tempo against The Dragon, which should make the fight entertaining but Machida’s patient style will keep him at a safe distance. Shogun won’t be able to get close enough to allow his Muay Tai to do damage and once the fight moves to the ground I think Machida submits Shogun.
There you have it. We all agree on both top matches, which may be bad luck for Cain Velasquez and Lyoto Machida.
We’ll be back tomorrow with play by play of UFC 104, though it will be delayed.
Machida photo shared by MSG’s Fight Club
Anthony Johnson came in 6 lbs heavy; his career at welterweight should be over.
The fight is still on right?
If he moves up and has to fight those bigger guys, it might be too much.
Rogan said during weigh ins that Yoshida agreed to fight. Probably cost Johnson a few Benjamin’s
.
I think Johnson would be alright at 185, he cuts way too much to try for WW. He will still cut around 20 lbs to fight at 185.
It cost him 20 percent.
From F4W/Wrestling Observer:
http://www.f4wonline.com/content/view/11079/
When Yoshida’s camp was told ahead of time that Johnson couldn’t get below 176 (he was 208 the last time I saw him and rumors he was as heavy as 225 and not fat at that weight when he started dropping weight), they made an agreement that if he weighed 176, that Yoshida would get 20% of his purse.
I’m predicting Anthony Johnson debuts at 185 next year against C.B. Dolloway.
shogun should have won that fight. machida landed a lot less strikes and should have lost. bad judging. rothwell wouldve lost anyway but that fight was stopped early. what do you guy’s think? i’m a big fan of this site by the way, nice job. the only one i go to.
Hey Jorbis,
Thanks for the nice words.
I had Rua winning 49-46. I can see Machida winning the fight, but only because the first three rounds were debatable. I don’t think it’s robbery as it was close, but I was surprised that Machida got the decision.
As for Rothwell, I do think it was an early stoppage, but I don’t think he would’ve lasted much longer.
I also believe Machida was robbed, but Shogun handled the situation well enough. The rematch should be good fun.
Rothwell was simply being abused.